David Craig, on March 25th, 2020(Wednesday blog)
Still on about the Chinese plague, I’m afraid.
Is this much worse than the flu?
There has been much talk of more people dying each year from ordinary flu than from the Chinese Covid-19 plague. On average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. This equates to about 110 flu-related deaths a day during the flu season. In comparison, only about 430 people in the UK so far have died from the Chinese Covid-19 plague.
Now let’s do some simple arithmetic for the Chinese Covid-19 plague. Let’s assume that around 20 million of us get the Chinese virus – that’s about 28% of the population. Then let’s assume that only 3% need hospitalisation and treatment in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) – that’s 600,000 people. (These numbers are lower than those suggested by Britain’s leading epidemiologists).
ICU treats patients whose lives are at risk or whose organs have failed. Severe Covid-19 leads mostly to lung failure. But it also causes kidney and cardiovascular (heart and blood vessel) failure. All these are rapidly fatal without intense and prompt treatments only available in ICU. In simple terms, treatments include a ventilator taking over the patient’s breathing while the patient is anaesthetised (placed in an induced coma), a dialysis machine cleaning the blood and drugs or machines supporting the heart and blood pressure. The reality of care is, of course, considerably more complex and highly intensive.
But we only have about 4,000 ICU beds and only sufficient trained staff for those 4,000 ICU beds. Typically a Covid-19 sufferer with serious symptoms will be in an ICU bed for about 8 days. So, if the Chinese Covid-19 plague affects us for say 5 months (150 days), each ICU bed will be able to accommodate around twenty patients. Remember this is assuming there are no strokes, heart attacks, cancers, road accidents or other conditions which require ICU treatment.
So, with 4,000 ICU beds and twenty patients per bed over the five months, maybe 80,000 Covid-19 patients at most will get ICU care. The other 520,000 who require ICU care can’t have it. And the figure who can’t have the necessary ICU treatment will actually be much higher as some ICU beds will be needed for people with other life-threatening conditions.
It’s therefore not inconceivable that deaths from the Chinese Covid-19 plague could easily be over 500,000. That’s rather more than the 17,000 or so flu deaths each year. Even if the NHS manages to double or triple the number of ICU beds and trained staff, we will still have tens of thousands of Covid-19 patients suffocating to death in makeshift hospitals in exhibition centres and sports halls.
That’s what terrifies the politicians.
Epidemiologists and climatologists
But can we trust the epidemiologists’ models of projected infection rates? After all, supposed ‘scientists’ have been totally discredited by the shameless data-fiddling, model-manipulation and outright lies of the world’s grant-hungry and media-attention-hungry climatologists.
Moreover, we were told that BSE would be a health disaster. In the UK over four million healthy cattle were slaughtered and burnt yet only 177 people died after contracting variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) through eating infected beef. And there were SARS, Swine flu and Avian Flu. All were bigged up by the ‘experts’ and the media as going to cause huge health crises. Yet only 774 people worldwide died from SARS. I think there were only a couple of SARS deaths in the UK.
It does seem that ‘scientists’ will always play safe and conjure up the absolute worst-case scenarios in order to protect their own reputation and make themselves feel important. After all, it would be disastrous to a scientist’s career if they said that Covid-19 was no big deal and they turned out to be wrong. Much better to play Dr Doom to terrify politicians into drastic action and then claim credit (and lots more lucrative grants and a few gongs or even a comfy seat in the Lords) when things turn out not to have been as bad as was predicted.
But even assuming massive exaggeration by our often self-serving, highly-politicised, attention-seeking scientists, as Italy and Spain report hundreds of Covid-19 deaths a day, it really does seem that this time the scientists crying “wolf” may be worth listening to.
Dirty, filthy, corrupt, disease-ridden Chinese?
I firmly believe that the real source of the current Chinese Covid-19 was an accidental leak from Dr Peng Zhou’s L-4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This is the lab where Dr Peng Zhou studies how bats can carry various (bioengineered?) versions of Ebola, Sars and Coronavirus without becoming infected themselves. Remember, here’s Dr Zhou’s description of his own work taken, not from some conspiracy theory crazy blogger, but from the official Wuhan Institute of Virology website:
“Taking bats as the research object, I will answer the molecular mechanism that can coexist with Ebola and SARS- associated coronavirus for a long time without causing disease, and its relationship with flight and longevity.”
Furthermore, I believe that the cause of the leak was a lab worker being infected by bats’ blood, urine or faeces and then not following the prescribed decontamination procedures probably because they were in a hurry to get home that day.
Though, of course, all the experts are desperately claiming that the Covid-19 virus couldn’t possibly be bioengineered and couldn’t possibly have come from a lab because that would cause public outrage against anyone doing virus research. Therefore the scientists are circling the wagons and claiming the Covid-19 outbreak must have come from the Wuhan ‘wet market’.
Supporting the idea of the virus coming from the ‘wet market, if anyone was in any doubt about the disgusting eating habits of the dirty, filthy, corrupt, disease-ridden Chinese, here’s something to put you off your corn flakes:
Category: 
I think the viral overload article was very important please all who read this blog post a link or mention it on mainstream press and media.
At the moment we face the possible near destruction of our economy for nothing. Almost all of those coronavirus deaths in Italy where to people with average age of 78 and 99% of them had other illness.
It seems overwhelmingly probable that COVID-19 is the consequence of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology rather than a spontaneous mutation arising in nearby wet market, but that is irrelevant now. It’s here, it’s killing thousands, it’s a pandemic and it’s destroying the economy of the entire Western world as well as disrupting the lives of billions. Our children and grandchildren will be living with the consequences for years to come – but perhaps, taking the long view, that’s not such a bad thing. I and many people of more mature years have watched with mingled disgust and despair the naval-gazing, self-obsessed, gender questioning, over-indulged, perpetually selfie-taking so-called millennials, wondering how on earth they will deal with the harsh realities of life – and death – which all flesh is heir to when or if they ever grow up. Well, that reality is now here. Health services world wide are being stretched to their limits. Our own NHS, once the envy of the world, has had its funding cut and its clinical staff so demoralized by successive government “reforms” and bureaucratic overload that it can barely function. As an ex-NHS employee (in better days) myself, with family members now struggling daily at the sharp end against lack of beds, inadequate ICU facilities and insufficient staff, I know what I am talking about. A desirable consequence of this health emergency could well be that once the crisis is over and those who have survived are just glad still to be alive, we shall hear a bit less about LGBT and menstruating men and women with dangly bits and all the other nonsense to which we’ve been increasingly subject for a decade or more. Good old Darwinism will kick in. Survival of the fittest!
I guess given the evident national taste for live flesh, the Chinese chap in the video lost his arm to a larger compatriot who fancied a pre-prandial snack!
The concept of Viral Load was discussed briefly last evening on Inside Health, R4, repeated this afternoon.
Your analysis is sensible, but after the first paragraph it becomes guesswork and unfortunately the government seems to be doing just the same. I’ve just tried to find out what happened in 1918 with the Spanish flu. I think the UK population was about 45 million and it is said that about 25% of the population got it and 228,000 died. As far as I know there was no lockdown and there were no antibiotics and so it gets difficult to compare. But the BBC has an article about this and says in comparison only 430 people in England and Wales died from the flu in 2016. This proves one key issue for me and that is the media and the government will do anything to distort the truth. We also see comparisons with the black death, but that was mainly spread by fleas as I understand it.
I did not know the death rate for flu and it surprises me that I do not know anybody who has died from it, or know anybody else who knows anybody and that is over 75 years. I am not even sure that I know anybody who has has the flu. I know a lot who claim to have had it and a few days later were perfectly well and showed no signs of any illness. It’s been a favourite for time off work. I had an uncle who died of Spanish flu before I was born. At that time my grandparents had seven children and lived in a two up two down house. If anybody else got it they survived. I doubt the family was panicked into the behaviour being forced on us today and they would have been none of the panic buying nonsense that is making the situation far worse today. It is obvious that the government and supermarkets have lost control and the supply chains are not working as they claim.
The only common “facts” we know for seasonal flu and this virus are the number of identified cases and the death rate for those cases. I have seen these from several sources and it is clear that the seasonal flu is far more dangerous. I believe there is still some uncertainty in interpreting these figures because the people dying have other conditions. It is surely only possible to compare death rates if the death is from a single cause, so only the death rate of fit people with flu or the virus really tells us the truth. We do not have that.
The other information we are not being given is how many people being treated are recovering and the question the government and NHS will never address is whether they were treating people who had no chance of recovery, which is a complete waste of limited resources. I know several people who have been pointlessly kept alive for a few days and one kept in an induced coma for a month against his wishes in a living will. A state run health service cannot consider doing the sensible thing and adopting euthanasia in these cases. The money wasted on beds and staff can be used where it is useful rather than keeping people alive pointlessly. This is the debate we should have had decades ago. We should have a choice between palliative care or euthanasia at the end of our life and if we cannot pay for it ourselves then the cheapest option should be taken to endure limited resources are being used effectively.
It is no wonder we end up in a complete shambles when neither the population or the government can face and discuss the reality of dying. I have no family and so perhaps have a different view to many, but expecting others to pay for treatment that is completely pointless must be wrong.
Enjoying the stories and comments on this blog so thank you for posting.
I think the 5 year average deaths from flu in uk are 17k. I understand the cause of death should not be recorded as flu if the person has a more debilitating illness such as cancer. The more accurate reporting of causes of deaths explains the lower covid19 fatalities in Germany.
The uk data forecasts are worse case and seem to contradict both historical evidence and real time data from asian countries such as Japan and Singapore even South Korea. Lots of data coming out of Iceland testing too.
The only upside is that we do come out of this with a determination to import less and manufacturer and consume locally. The who trickle down globalist agenda was imho a massive fraud on citizens and if this is now reversed then it will be a useful crisis.
I forgot to add to the above that the issue of understanding the death by isolating the specific cause rather than adding several together is exactly the same problem as climate change. In order to prove that humans are causing climate change the effect of our carbon dioxide has to be isolated from all other causes, including natural sources. This is impossible to do because the climate is a chaotic system. The climate scientists claim to have identified a human signal on the natural climate signal. They have not done this because they would need to identify the chaotic natural climate signal and if they have done that we would have accurate weather forecasts for a hundred years ahead. Radio works because we know the form of the carrier signal and so can extract the radio signal from it.
We are being lied to continually by decent people who hope they know the answer but really know it is not much more than a guess, and another group of fraudsters who use poor science to control us and benefit financially by ripping us off.
More evidence the coronavirus was being engineered as a weapon
Watch on youtube – Coronavirus Why is the Virus Targeting Iranian Officials China Launches a Disinformation Campaign
Boots are managing to inflict more coronavirus torture on us. They have introduced a virtual queue to get on their website. I have got about a third of the way there in two hours and I guess everything will be out of stock as it has been for about two weeks.